Аннотация: He had money, but he didn't have people. The danger of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's visit to Belarus. A political essay.
He had money, but he didn't have people. The danger of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's visit to Belarus. A political essay.
Today, September 3, 2020, the media reported on the visit of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to Belarus.
The visit itself is a usual matter. Thousands of different visits are making around the world every day ...
Another thing is that Mikhail Mishustin's visit is carried out in the period after the elections, at which Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya won by many indirect signs, at a time when the population's protests against Alexander Lukashenko's intention to remain at the top political post of Belarus do not subside.
In addition, Mikhail Mishustin's visit was announced on September 3, 2020, and yesterday, September 2, 2020, the media reported on the words of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, which can be understood as meaning that Russia does not intend to negotiate with the Belarusian opposition.
In such circumstances, the visit of Mikhail Mishustin can be presumably or maliciously interpreted as an action to deepen integration between Russia and Belarus.
Integration has been going on for over ten years. But the intention to deepen integration during the period of protests, to deepen it by a person whose legitimacy is disputed, may become an additional source of irritation on the part of the broad masses of the Belarusian population.
Thus, the preponderance of Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya's supporters over Lukashenko's supporters will become even more enormous. At the same time, the discrediting of the Union State of Russia and Belarus will intensify.
The possible intensification of discrediting the Union State of Russia and Belarus is a risk factor created by Mikhail Mishustin's visit to Belarus.
In addition to the topic of "risk", we will express a few more thoughts on the topic of the political situation.
Naturally, we cannot look behind the tightly closed doors of negotiations between Mikhail Mishustin and representatives of the political stratum that does not want to give up power following the elections.
But we, based on experience and on a generalized view of the situation, can unambiguously state. Following the talks, the topic of the usefulness of economic cooperation with Russia for Belarus will be voiced. What determines this usefulness? Financial assistance (a loans, a maneuvering by prices for purchased and sold goods, manipulation of market quotas, etc.).
Let us conclude our reflections with the words from "Memoirs" by Pavel Nikolayevich Milyukov (a politician during the era of Emperor Nicholas II and the 1917 revolution): "He had money, but he had no people."
Even fewer people - today ...
"It [the government of Nicholas II] was able to sent officials to the province, but these were people alien to the country, bureaucrats who knew the chancellery with its red tape, but were not accustomed to the living business, which they invariably spoiled and slowed down."
To care about whom? Who to worry about? About Lukashenko or about friendship between Russia and Belarus?
September 3, 2020 12:15
Translation from Russian into English: September 3, 2020 12:40.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'У него были деньги, но не было людей. Чем опасен визит премьер-министра Михаила Мишустина в Беларусь. Политологический очерк'.