In the land of magnolias, the sea splashes. Why did Lukashenko's visit take place a month after he was recognized by the Russial authorities? A political essay
Аннотация: In the land of magnolias, the sea splashes. Why did Lukashenko's visit take place a month after he was recognized by the Russial authorities? A political essay.
In the land of magnolias, the sea splashes. Why did Lukashenko's visit take place a month after he was recognized by the Russial authorities? A political essay.
According to media reports, today, September 14, 2020, Alexander Lukashenko will visit Sochi.
Lukashenko's regime badly needed (and needs) recognition, telephone conversations, the visit of the prime minister of Russia to Belarus, Lukashenko's visit to Russia, further attempts to legalize itself through a procedure called inauguration, and financial and credit support.
Lukashenko's regime received recognition from the Russial authorities (August 10, 2020 - "congratulations", August 29, 2020 - "recognition"), telephone talks (of the highest level), and a visit by the Prime Minister Mishustin (September 3, 2020).
On September 7-10, 2020, Foreign Minister of Russia Lavrov paid a visit to Cyprus.
"MOSCOW, Sep 10 [2020] - RIA Novosti. Cyprus has blocked the EU's adoption of sanctions against Belarus [against Lukashenko and his political entourage], Bloomberg reports citing informed sources." [unofficial translation] (https://ria.ru/20200910/sanktsii-1577015404.html).
What can you, the Belarusian people, do against us? (The population of Belarus is 10 million people. The population of Russia is over 100 million people! We are represented in all international organizations, in the UN Security Council! We influence world processes!).
Huge efforts were made to prove the futility, hopelessness, senselessness of protests, to reduce intensity, to stop the protests ...
A sharp decline in protests would be declared a local victory for the Lukashenko regime and the few forces supporting him. This local victory would have been pillared (strengthened) by the next victory - Lukashenko's visit to Russia ... Further, according to the plan - a procedure called Lukashenka's inauguration ...
But nothing came of it ... The protests did not diminish - despite all the efforts ...
There was no possibility to postpone the visit.
There was no possibility for Lukashenko to postpone, since further according to the plan - the inauguration. More than a month has passed since what was called the election (August 9, 2020).
There was no way for the Russial authorities to postpone Lukashenko's visit, as this would bring the discrediting of Lukashenko's regime up to an exorbitant level.
This, according to the rules of a rigid policy, cannot be allowed ...
The initiative - increasingly - is in the hands of the real winner of the elections Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and in the hands of the Belarusian people.
A meeting with such a figure as Lukashenko may not be beneficial for Russia - Lukashenka is added to Maduro and Assad ... If a couple of such figures (additionally) will be on the balance sheet of Russia, and it will be possible to introduce a 300-day electronic voting ...
But Armenia inspires optimism. The raw material pie still available, although it has decreased. And a lot can be achieved with its help ... In addition, you can spend, spend and spend the reputation of Russia (the positive potential of the world reputation) ... Foreign policy is ineffective and has no positive prospects, it is at a dead end ....
The meeting with Lukashenko is planned not in Moscow, but in Sochi ... The signing of official documents, it seems, is not on the agenda ... "In the land of magnolias, the sea is splashing ..."
Lukashenka will present the meeting as his own local victory and will organize a procedure called the inauguration. Most likely, it will be the beginning, the first half of the week (but not Saturday or Sunday) ...
The Russial authorities will agree to some kind of financial and credit support for the Lukashenka regime ...
What's next? The future of Lukashenko's regime, despite all its maneuvers, is vague, dark, unpromising ...
Lukashenko's regime is in a political and economic impasse. It is critically important for him to get a significant share of the Russial raw material pie under any pretext ... But this option, even if Lukashenko can achieve it, does not guarantee anything ...
September 14, 2020 07:54
Translation from Russian into English: September 14, 2020 08:38.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'В краю магнолий плещет море. Почему визит Лукашенко состоялся через месяц после его признания властями России? Политологический очерк'.