Аннотация: The economic future of Belarus. A forecast.
The economic future of Belarus. A forecast.
Since 1775, the territory of modern Belarus became part of the Russian Empire.
Since that time, the East-Republicans, the Velikolithuanians, as part of other peoples of the empire, were developing Siberia and the Far East.
Since 1775, the part of intelligentsia that began to form in 1364 (conditional date) has become part of the Russian intelligentsia.
Those people who today call themselves Belarusians, along with all other peoples of the empire (and later, the USSR (Russia)), used the intellectual potential and the raw material pie (geopolitical rent), which were at the disposal of the peoples of the huge Euro-Asian power.
The intellectual potential received by the empire after 1775, and partially replenished in the 30-40-50s of the 20th century, was gradually depleted. This depletion has been increasingly prominent since the early 21st century. A tendency arose to destroy the intelligentsia. People of intellectual success could not count on either security, or high social status, or real financial well-being. The time has come for effective managers and all sorts of prankers.
The raw material pie was getting poorer and poorer. A bad management, a dependence on China and China's skillful line of concluding economic deals that are extremely beneficial for China, showed a results.
By the beginning of the 21st century, Belarus was at the end of the queue for her share of the raw material pie (or, more broadly, for her share of geopolitical rent).
The first and predominant position in the queue was and is occupied by China, in the second place was and is Turkey. And more and more often there a closed door in front of Belarus was seen.
The topics of economic disputes and unresolved economic problems between Russia and Belarus were constantly circulating in the public space. The subject of disputes was some prices, debts, etc. (Have you heard about the disputes between Russia and China? I have not heard ... Between Turkey and Russia - there was something, but in a minimal volume ...).
Yes, a skillful maneuvering, a skillful multi-pass political games took place. But it seems that the intuitive understanding has become increasingly widespread in Belarusian society - that the model of relations between Belarus and Russia (the model based on receiving a share from geopolitical rent and from intellectual potential), will soon come to an end. The debt of Belarus to China was growing ...
Naturally, the eyes turned to the West. Back in 1939, most of Belarus was part of the Western World ...
What awaits Belarus in the West?
The best option. A developed, economically powerful Belarus becomes part of Europe. This option requires a powerful layer of people of success (like Sergei Korolev, Elon Musk and the similar people), as well as skillful administrators-politicians like Felix Dzerzhinsky and Gleb Krzhizhanovsky ...
But where to find such people of success in modern Belarus?
First, there no possibilities, no spaces, no energies for them to appear. A bad environment. Secondly, even if they do appear, they have no life perspective (this conclusion is made on the basis of the Russial experience - on the assumption that in this aspect the Belarusian reality is not very different from the Russial one. What are the fates of people of success, fates, which come to field of the public attention? You shouldn't ask about the developers of unique weapons. Nobody informs the public about the creators of the world's first vaccine against coronavirus (announced on August 11, 2020). And it seems that will be no information. It turns out that they remain without glory, without awards, without noticeable money, without mansions and expensive cars? Without real life prospects? What are the fates of the creators of the bicycle parade projects (in Moscow) or the fates of the inventors of the all-Russial annual patriotic processions? We can guess about. What is the fate of the historian Oleg Sokolov, the founder of the historical reenactment movement, we all know - at first he was placed under silence; he was not awarded after the glorious celebration of the 200th anniversary of the victory in the Patriotic war of 1812; in 2012-2013, he has lost both the brand and leader post (his movement found a new leader), later - a two years persecution, baiting took place; where he is now, and what is his situation, - everyone knows ....
So, the option of a strong, economically powerful Belarus (within Europe) is good. But where can be find a sufficient layer of people of success capable of ensuring the harmonious entry of a powerful and influential Belarus into the European family?
A more realistic option is Belarus, which is becoming a secondary, albeit respected, recognized, political element in Western Europe. This option has its pluses and minuses, which we will not descript now. There are more pluses in such perspective, in such variant.
Alexander Lukashenko is good for negotiations with Russia. Experience, well-developed algorithms of actions, tested models of communication have an effect ... In relations with the West, sometimes something appears ... there no habit for historical courtesy ...
For interaction with Europe, a very good option is the charming smile of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya ...
And if everything with Lukashenko would drag on for decades and would have gone through the different troubles, then with Tikhanovskaya's smile, the process of Belarus's integration into Europe could be successful - this process coud reach positive result relatively easily and effectively.
Thus, Belarus has relatively good economic prospects.
August 21, 2020 21:00
Translation from Russian into English: August 22, 2020 16:41.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Экономическое будущее Белоруссии. Прогноз'.