Воронов Владимир Викторович: другие произведения.

"voting with feet" to "country in exile".

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   Is it possible the dethronement of Alexander Lukashenko?
       "Voting with  feet"  to "country in exile".
   It is evident that opponents of dictatorship used wrong tactics, not in vain "color" revolutions won in countries with ailing economy and big corruption. They happened in Ukraine, Georgia and  Kirghistan;
    - Riots and violent street demonstrations can be successful only after strong weakening of the dictatorial regime in  Belarus.  Therefore other tactics is necessary;
   - As Belarus bears a resemblance to the USSR so the effective tactics of struggle against the Belarus dictator should take into account of defects and lacks of the Soviet communistic system; 
   - Firstly, it is related to features of the Belarus economy. As it is known, strong weakening of Soviet economy have led to crash of communist  System; 
   - The main strong feature of the Belarus economy is the possibility of sale of Belorussian goods in the huge Russian market. Also dictatorial regime has considered an experience of the Chinese economic reforms; 
   - The weak feature of the Belarus economy is possibility of mass departure of able-bodied population from the country. (It was not possible in the USSR). It is possible not only in the theory; 
   - Emigration of the Soviet Jews from the USSR can be analogue of it. Other   analogue was the escape of West Germans from DDR. Berlin Wall was result of this process. Hence, mass "voting with  feet" from Belarus can be organized;
   - This process can become the big problem for dictator Lukashenko. Russians or other citizens of the CIS will not go to work in Belarus; 
   - Secondly, mass emigration of the Belarus able-bodied population can decide a problem of depopulation  in some European countries. It is topical for Latvia and East parts of Germany now, it will be topical for Poland andLithuania in the future;
   - Unfortunately, opponents of dictatorship very often use the factor "voting with feet" badly. I lived in 2008-2012 inCzech Republic and I saw that refugees from Belarus were deciding own problems themselves, as the Czech state helped them not enough, the Belarus Diaspora helped little, too; 
   - The big increase in number of the Belarus migrants will lead to appearance of the Belarus districts in areas of compact settlement,  similar to Chinatowns  and small Tokyo in the USA). So the Belarus diaspora can grow to full-fledged "country in exile";
   - It is necessary to consider the factor of meritocracy, too. Dictatorial regimes use skills and abilities of the citizens badly. Lukashenko's regime is not an exception. Mass emigration of Belorussians in other countries will promoteBelarus culture explosion and the accelerated development of the Belarus science and technology.
   V.V.Voronov e-mail: ethnogenesis2014@yandex.ru
  

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